Best Bet Dak Prescott Most Passing Touchdown 2025
Best Bet: Dak Prescott to Lead the NFL in Passing Touchdowns in 2025
When you scan the board for futures markets this season, one player jumps out as a clear value play to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns: Dak Prescott. While oddsmakers focus their attention on Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen, Prescott sits in that next tier — and that’s exactly where the betting edge lies. At current odds around +1500, he’s not just a dark horse — he’s a legitimate best bet to top the league in touchdown passes this season.
Health = Confidence = Touchdowns
Prescott enters 2025 with a clean bill of health for the first time in years. When Dak is healthy, he’s proven he can finish at the top of the leaderboard. In 2023, he led the league with 36 passing touchdowns. The ceiling is already proven, and at full strength, he’s poised to hit it again.
Elite Weapons for Red-Zone Dominance
Few quarterbacks are walking into a better setup. CeeDee Lamb is an established superstar and one of the most dangerous red-zone weapons in football. Pair him with George Pickens, who brings size and physicality to win contested catches, and suddenly Prescott has two legitimate touchdown machines at his disposal. Add in Dallas’ athletic tight ends and versatile backs, and defenses simply won’t have enough bodies to cover every option.
A Pass-Heavy Scheme Equals Opportunity
The Cowboys’ backfield doesn’t feature a true workhorse this year. That’s a signal: expect Prescott to shoulder the load. Brian Schottenheimer’s offense is designed to put the ball in Dak’s hands early and often, particularly near the goal line. More passing volume directly translates to more touchdown upside — and that’s the formula bettors should look for in a futures market like this.
Motivation Meets Market Value
Prescott plays every season with the weight of expectations in Dallas, but 2025 feels like a contract year, a prove-it year, and an MVP chase all wrapped into one. The storylines matter in futures betting: quarterbacks with something to prove often push for statement seasons. Prescott’s motivation aligns perfectly with his statistical upside. Combine that with the fact that he’s being priced below Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen, and you’re looking at one of the most mispriced bets on the board.
Proven Track Record of High Touchdown Totals
We’re not betting on an unknown ceiling here — Dak’s already shown he can lead the league in touchdowns. Over the last five seasons, he’s averaged nearly 27 TD passes per year, despite injuries and inconsistent supporting casts. With better health, better receivers, and more passing opportunities, 40+ touchdowns is squarely in play.
The Bet
At +1500, Dak Prescott to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns is one of the best values in the futures market right now. The path is clear: health, upgraded weapons, a pass-first system, and proven production. If you’re shopping for upside with legitimate winning potential, this is the ticket to grab before the number shortens.
