What Are NFL Football Lines?

NFL football lines refer to the various betting odds that a given sportsbook releases concerning NFL games. These lines take into consideration which team any given bettor will choose to place a bet on, and how much they would win. To fully understand them, one would have to have knowledge of the point spread, moneyline, and totals (over/under). We will explain each in great detail in order for you to have a better knowledge of your bets.

How to Use NFL Lines & Odds to Bet (and Build Lineups) Smarter

Understanding NFL lines and odds is only half the challenge, the other half is knowing how to apply them. From straight betting to parlaying to daily fantasy lineups, the same numbers sportsbooks release weekly can inform almost every decision you’ll make. Here are a few ways to make raw NFL odds a genuine strategy.

Begin With Line Movement, NOT Line Movement

NFL lines are not set in stone; they change constantly right before and after they are released. Often the guidance of the movement of a line tells you more than the line itself. A spread that is -3 and steadily moves to -5 usually indicates a big bet on the favorite (or a sharp bet on the favorite). When a line is moving in opposition to the public betting percentage — for instance the underdog is building ground when most betters are betting on the favorite — it’s a good indicator of “smart money” activity.

If you are paying attention to the line action during the week, particularly when injuries are released or weather predictions become more concrete as they get closer to game day, you may be able to tell if it’s a good time to bet early and secure a value or to wait for the data.

Line Shopping: The Easiest Free Edge in Sports Betting.

Line shopping is one of the easiest strategies to have to boost your long-term profitability; it’s a process of researching and comparing the odds on the same game at various sportsbooks before placing a wager. It is not uncommon to see a point spread, total, or moneyline price different by a half-point or more between sportsbooks, since they set their own lines. Those small differences add up over an entire NFL season. So a wagerer who always goes to the best sportsbook on each and every bet will make more money than a wagerer who has one sportsbook that he always books at, even with the same picks.

Understanding Moneyline Value on Unbalanced Games

Moneylines are particularly beneficial in situations where the point spread is wide. A big favourite could be -9 on the spread, but -380 on the moneyline — that is, a bettor just wants to bet on the winning side without having to worry about the large spread. A quick comparison of the spread price to the moneyline price on the same game is a good indicator of the amount of real uncertainty the market perceives in the matchup, and can also provide insight into the competitive (or uncompetitive) nature of the game script.

Turning Lines Into Fantasy & DFS Decisions

NFL lines aren’t just about predicting the winners, they’re about projecting how a game will be played for fantasy and DFS players. The advantage is that heavily favoured teams with a big lead will often rely on the running game to hold off a lead, making the running back a more valuable fantasy pick. Quarterbacks and wide receivers for underdogs, however, have to throw more often to stay even in a losing cause, which can up volume for them. Add the spread with the total and you have a much more accurate indicator of what each team is capable of scoring, and which offenses to target in your lineup.

Combined with our NFL matchups pages and player projections, you get a full picture: odds tell you what the game situation is, projections tell you which players are in the right place to take advantage of that game situation.

The best bettors and the most successful DFS players have a common trait: They don’t take lines as their sole input, they take lines as just one of several. A “lock” can be converted into a loss quickly and easily due to injury, weather, and in-game adjustments. Look at NFL lines and odds to find value and develop a strategy, but play within the limits that you are comfortable with.